Flávia Linden
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NY futures rebounded this week, with May rallying 790 points to close at 208.22 cents, while December gained 544 points to close at 132.50 cents.
This week's volatile and somewhat unexpected move showed just how dangerous it is to trade current crop futures at the moment. Just when it seemed that May and July were starting to roll over due to waning demand on the physical front, a powerful short-covering rally lifted the spot month by as much as 2600 points between Tuesday's low of 188.85 cents and intra-day high of 115.06 cents.
Over the past three weeks traders have been steadily expanding open interest to 199'158 contracts, up from just 172'588 contracts on March 14. A big chunk of this increase came in the form of bear spreading, as traders were betting on a reversal of the steep inversion that exists all the way out to the December 2012 contract.
Until a few days ago this strategy seemed to work quite well, but with May approaching its notice period, anyone short the spot month doesn't have the luxury of time and once prices dipped below 190 cents on Tuesday, fixations and short-covering created enough outright buying to force a strong reversal.
As a result traders started to get out of bear spreads in a hurry, which forced the May/July inversion all the way out to 1900 points, or more than 1100 points over where it had traded two days ago. The July/Dec spread, which seemed to be the main object of speculation lately, widened back out to over 5800 points after it had narrowed in to 4700 points on Tuesday. In an effort to reign in speculation in spreading, the exchange announced this afternoon that it would raise margin requirements on spreads from 2'000 to 2'500 dollars.
US export sales followed a familiar pattern last week, whereas resistance to current crop prices led to a net reduction in sales of 15'700 running bales for the current marketing year, but commitments for next season increased by a decent 275'100 running bales. Meanwhile shipments reached a marketing year high of 539'700 running bales, bringing total export for the season so far to right around 10.0 million bales.
Outside markets may have played a helping hand in the strong showing of NY futures this week, as corn traded to an all-time high of 7.72 dollars per bushel before retreating somewhat. Corn prices have more than doubled since last summer and are now three times what they were five to ten years ago, when they traded in a 2 to 3 dollar range year after year. With new crop corn at 6.44 dollars and new crop soybeans at 13.67 dollars a bushel, cotton has its work cut out to stay competitive.
Then there were some developments on the currency front that are worth mentioning since they are likely to have an impact on commodity markets over time. While the US is dealing with a budget crisis, Europe is currently confronted with the financial rescue of Portugal, which is in need of some 90 billion Euros to stay solvent.
We have long held the belief that bailing out anyone in need, from financial institutions to entire nations, will ultimately lead to a severe debasement of the world's leading currencies. While this may not be expressed as much in the cross rates between these two currencies, it will manifest itself in the form of higher nominal prices of just about anything from gold to cotton.
Unfortunately the governments of both the US and the European Union are either unwilling or unable to do much about their escalating debt problem. Take the ongoing US budget debate for example! Republicans and Democrats are engaged in a fierce political battle at the moment, debating whether they should cut the budget by 33 or 40 billion dollars and in what areas. However, in the end they are talking about peanuts when compared to a budget shortfall of around 1700 billion this year.
In other words, it doesn't really matter whether the national debt in the US will grow to 15'493 or 15'500 billion dollars by the end of this year. We see this as nothing more than political posturing ahead of next year's presidential election. Meanwhile debt levels in the US, as well as in Europe, are rising at alarmingly fast rates and the only remedy left at this point seems to be the printing press. This is highly inflationary over time and we are already experiencing the first symptoms of it in the form of rising commodity prices.
So where do we go from here? While physical prices for nearby shipment are under some pressure, NY futures follow different dynamics and additional short covering has the potential to lift the May contract even higher. Unfixed on-call sales of 1.3 million bales on May and 3.2 million on July are still rather high and should keep the market well supported.
However, there is no denying that May futures are currently overvalued in comparison to cash prices, probably by at least 15 cents. In other words, other than squeezing the shorts, there is little incentive for anyone to take the May contract at current prices, especially at such a steep invert to July. We therefore expect a very volatile next two weeks until the fate of the May contract gets decided. Although December got hammered due to the unwinding of spreads, we still like it at the current level for reasons mentioned in our last report.
L’Oréal Professionnel announced that they will produce another in a series of regional cocktail events and fashion shows featuring Gwen Stefani’s L.A.M.B. clothing collection in Costa Mesa, CA on October 24, 2010, this time in the fashion capital of Orange County Costa Mesa.
Coming off of their major successes at Fashion Week in New York City (NYC) this past September, L’Oréal Professionnel and L.A.M.B. decided to take their show on the road by hosting a series of exclusive regional cocktail events and fashion shows across the US. These intimate events have taken place in Atlanta, Chicago, and San Francisco showcasing both Stefani’s Spring/Summer 2011 L.A.M.B. collection and L’Oréal Professionnel’s high-end product lines, most notably their INOA hair color which made its runway debut at the L.A.M.B. show in NYC. The series is winding down in what would be an appropriate location for the last show, Stefani’s own Orange County.
L’Oréal Professionnel has tasked Orange County’s leading hair stylist, Donato Bianchini and his team at Vogue Salon, to serve as its ambassador utilizing INOA and the rest of the L’Oréal Professionnel line of products to provide the models with hair inspired by and that complements the stunning L.A.M.B. collection. INOA, which is an abbreviation for “Innovative No Ammonia” and is ammonia free as its name implies, has become a star in its own right appearing on “The Today Show” and in the pages of countless magazines. Vogue Salon’s ability to manipulate and expertly apply INOA in concert with the other L’Oréal Professionnel products is just one of many reasons that they were selected to support this special show.
When asked how he felt about L’Oréal Professionnel’s decision to work with Vogue Salon, Bianchini fervently stated, “The team at Vogue Salon work very hard to ensure they are staying at the forefront of their respective fields. The fact that we’ve been chosen to do the hair for the L’Oréal Professionnel/L.A.M.B. show is a reward for that hard work.” Bianchini wryly added, “We love L’Oréal Professionnel products and we’re doing great things with INOA which also helped [with L’Oréal Professionnel’s decision] I’m sure.”
Preparation for the models will take place prior to the show on October 24th from 10AM-6PM at Vogue Salon’s Newport Beach location but will also involve stylists and colorists from its other location at the St. Regis Resort in Dana Point. The invite-only cocktail event and fashion show will be held at restaurant and nightclub, Sutra in Costa Mesa, CA from 7-9PM that same evening.
Posted by FNA on 14 Oct 2010-Bangladesh leather exports have jumped 50% during the first two months of the financial year from July to August, with all segments performing well, the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) said.
Bangladesh's total leather exports totalled $110.4 million during the two-month period, up from $73.5 million during the same period last year.
The breakdown showed that Bangladesh exported finished leather worth $47.3 million compared with $29.9 million (+58.4%), footwear worth 54.3 million compared with $40.8 million (+33.2%) and leather bags and purses worth $8.8 million compared with $2.9 million (+204.5%).
Bangladesh has fixed an export target of $563.8 million for the leather sector for the year compared with $476.8 million in the last financial year.
models present creations by Laskala during the Russian Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2011 in Moscow, Russia, Oct. 18, 2010.
The 12th Greek Fashion Week ended on Sunday in Athens amidst the economic crisis that has hit Greece this year, with a message of hope for the future by dozens of local renowned and newcomer designers.
Held in Technopolis, a cultural center of the City of Athens in the center of the Greek capital, the four-day event, which is held annually, wound up in a party atmosphere, erasing the gloom for the financial woes of the debt-ridden country which narrowly avoided bankruptcy six months ago.
The common message of the Greek designers who participated in the event, presenting to the public their collections for Spring/ Summer 2011, was that despite present difficulties, the show goes on with bright colors and bold patterns, elegance, beauty and determination to enjoy life.
The 12th Greek Fashion Week was organized by the Technopolis City of Athens and the Ministry of Regional Development and Competitiveness in cooperation with the Greek Technology and Design Center (ELKEDE).
The event which attracted thousands of fashionist as featured creations by representatives of the older generation of Greek designers, such as Makis Tselios, Nikos-Takis, Kathy Heyndels, Giannetos and Aslanis, as well as designs of young creators who have just finished their studies in Greek Fashion Schools.
They presented to the public a wide variety of creations, such as classical chic dresses in white or red, costumes in floral patterns and more futuristic designs. Apart from Greek designers during the Fashion Week this year "Krug 8" (Circle 8), a group of designers from Serbia, showcased their collection as special guests.
Dalian Municipal Government recently signed a memorandum of cooperation with the Spanish fashion industry.
To further promote cooperation of Dalian with the Spanish fashion industry, and to build a platform for international brand to enter the Chinese market, Dalian Municipal Government met with Spainish National Clothing Federation, Catalonia PIMEC Garment Association, the Basque Clothing Association of Spain, and BADALONA MODA Garment Association, and discussed the issues of Spanish brands settling down in Dalian and cooperation to build a "headquarters base of international fashion brand in China," and then signed a memorandum of cooperation. Next, the Dalian municipal government will also establish relationship with relevant fashion associations in Italy, France, Korea and Japan, to introduce their excellent brands into China.
According to the latest statistics of China Commercial Information Center, the sales income of Chinese key retailers reached 35.26 billion yuan in July, rising 15.62% from a year agon. The sales of clothes were 7.69 billion yuan, up 21.05%, and accounting for 21.8% of the total retail. Referring to the quantity, the sale volume of clothes from the key retailers were 31.8 million pieces this month, up 11.24%. Both children??s wear and lady??s wear made rapid growth in volume, especially the children??s wear, rising 20.92%. While the man??s shirt and down wear sales declined. The jean sales kept stable, at the same level of last year. The sales income of textile and knitting goods in those key retailers reached 1.013 billion yuan in July, up 23.17% from the same period last year, and accouting for 2.9% of the total retail. Its growth rate was obviously higher than the average figure.
After an election by Professional Fashion Model Committee, and the evaluation by Fashion Arts Committee, China Fashion Designer Association and the organizing committee of 2010China International Fashion Week officially nominated 30 candidates for China's top professional fashion model contest, and to choose the China Fashion Awards 2010 best professional fashion model among them.
"China Fashion Awards - Best Professional Fashion Model" is the highest award in professional fashion model industry. By the end of 2009, it had selected 73 top ten female models, 6 best male models and 9 best female models. Those outstanding fashion models have made outstanding contributions for the development of Chinese fashion business, and also record and witness the process of professionalization of Chinese fashion models.
Models display fashion creations from Ireland during a fashion show in the World Expo Park in east China's Shanghai Municipality, Oct. 17, 2010.
Models show garments with traditional Chinese elements during a competition held in Dongguan, south China's Guangdong Province, on Oct. 14, 2010. The competition "I Love New Concept Chinese Garments" attracted designers from 32 colleges around the nation.
